KAP 19.7% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Shane Knuth, since 2017. Previously Member for Charters Towers 2004-2009, Member for Dalrymple 2009-2017.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Hill covers parts of far north Queensland south of Cairns, including a coastal area and a large inland area. The seat covers Innisfail, Atherton and Tully.
History
The seat of Hill was created in 2017, primarily replacing the seat of Dalrymple. That seat was created at the 2009 election, largely replacing the former seats of Tablelands and Charters Towers.
Charters Towers was created most recently in 1992. Rob Mitchell held the seat for the National Party from 1992 until 2001, when the ALP’s Christine Scott won the seat.
Scott held the seat for one term, before losing to National candidate Shane Knuth in 2004. Knuth was re-elected in 2006 and joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008.
Tablelands had been restored in 1986, and was held from 1986 to 1998 by Tom Gilmore Jr, of the National Party.
In 1998, Gilmore was defeated by One Nation’s Shaun Nelson. Nelson left One Nation in 1999, and as an independent he was defeated in 2001 by Rosa Lee Long, the new One Nation candidate.
Lee Long held Tablelands for One Nation at the 2004 and 2006 elections.
When Charters Towers and Tablelands were abolished in 2009, Lee Long and Knuth both ran for Dalyrmple, and Knuth won the seat, with a 5.2% margin.
In October 2011, Shane Knuth resigned from the Liberal National Party to join Katter’s Australian Party.
Knuth was re-elected as a KAP candidate at the 2012 and 2015 elections. He was re-elected in 2017 as member for the new seat of Hill.
Candidates
Assessment
Hill is a safe KAP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane Knuth | Katter’s Australian Party | 15,065 | 48.2 | +20.8 |
| Mario Quagliata | Liberal National | 7,136 | 22.8 | -14.6 |
| Diana O’Brien | Labor | 5,923 | 18.9 | -6.1 |
| Johanna Kloot | Greens | 2,052 | 6.6 | +1.6 |
| Stewart Worth | Independent | 857 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Chester Tuxford | Independent | 243 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,153 | 3.6 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane Knuth | Katter’s Australian Party | 21,815 | 69.7 | +14.9 |
| Mario Quagliata | Liberal National | 9,461 | 30.3 | -14.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hill have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the city of Innisfail have been grouped together, with the remainder split into north-east, south-east and west. There is only a small population in the north-east.
Katter’s Australian Party won a large majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 62.4% in the south-east to 75.7% in the west.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.3% in the west to 27% in Innisfail and the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP prim | KAP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 14.3 | 75.7 | 8,307 | 26.6 |
| Innisfail | 26.9 | 68.9 | 4,156 | 13.3 |
| South-East | 20.1 | 62.4 | 3,524 | 11.3 |
| North-East | 27.0 | 64.6 | 1,221 | 3.9 |
| Pre-poll | 18.2 | 69.0 | 10,940 | 35.0 |
| Other votes | 18.9 | 67.9 | 3,128 | 10.0 |
Election results in Hill at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candiate-preferred votes (KAP vs LNP) and Labor primary votes.
Someone has to say it. Easily KAP retain.
@NQ View haha! I’ve been trying to get around to every seat, which is taking me longer than expected. Have to say Shane has a habit of seats being demolished on him (Charters Towers, Dalrymple). Well liked locally and a strong local member, which has helped with KAP gaining a few wins this parliament. He has been campaigning here and assisting the Cook KAP Candidate, so we’ll see if that popularity wears off on the border of the two electorates.
Prediction (August 2020): KAP Retain
Nick Cuda is the LNP candidate for Hill. Safe KAP retain.
Now that there is compulsory preferencing – where do Greens preferences go in a seat like this – or many others in Northern QLD. Do the KAP, ONP or LNP go higher on their HTV cards?
Only realised today that Peter Campion is running in this seat. He is the father of Vicki Campion, of Barnaby Joyce fame. He’d be lucky to get 500 votes.
Lots of signage for Cuda up on the Tablelands, but still KAP retain.
Prediction: KAP Retain
Katter retain
Katter